Congressional disclosures vs the S&P 500
Follow these 20 and you would have beaten the market.
Buy what they disclose buying, the day after it is filed; sell the day after they disclose selling. Every position is measured against the same money in the S&P 500, bought and sold on the same days.
Across 2,207 positions. The 20 are the best records on the board, so they are picked with hindsight; copying every member instead returns 23.1% against the S&P's 27.9%.
Best records
The top 20, each against the S&P 500
Their average position, and the same money in the S&P 500 over the same days. Hover a row for the detail.
Every member
10 positions minimum. "Head start" is their own entry price against a copier's. Year columns show the edge over the S&P for positions opened that year.
| # | Member | Positions | Them | Head start | S&P 500 | Difference | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | Ahead / behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete SessionsRepublicanevery year | 22 | 159.7% | −6.5% | 51.5% | +108.2% | · | +154 | +231 | +8 | · | · | |
| 2 | Dwight EvansDemocrat | 17 | 112.9% | −7.1% | 52.8% | +60.0% | · | −4 | +15 | +187 | +107 | · | |
| 3 | Bob GibbsRepublican | 14 | 93.4% | −2.5% | 65.7% | +27.7% | +41 | +10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 4 | Marjorie Taylor GreeneRepublican | 426 | 65.9% | +0.7% | 39.4% | +26.4% | −67 | −10 | · | +32 | +30 | · | |
| 5 | Mark E. GreenRepublican | 26 | 35.1% | +2.2% | 11.2% | +24.0% | −8 | +23 | +46 | · | · | · | |
| 6 | Ed CaseDemocrat | 10 | 30.9% | +12.2% | 14.0% | +17.0% | · | · | · | · | · | +17 | |
| 7 | Nancy PelosiDemocrat | 51 | 38.4% | +4.0% | 26.2% | +12.2% | −20 | +12 | +61 | +52 | +14 | 0 | |
| 8 | Tim MooreRepublican | 106 | 26.9% | +3.6% | 16.7% | +10.3% | · | · | · | · | +15 | −8 | |
| 9 | Victoria SpartzRepublican | 16 | 80.0% | +2.4% | 74.0% | +6.0% | · | +9 | +18 | −2 | −9 | · | |
| 10 | Debbie Wasserman SchultzDemocrat | 16 | 64.1% | −3.0% | 58.2% | +5.9% | −153 | +61 | · | +25 | +41 | · | |
| 11 | Kathy E. ManningDemocrat | 363 | 50.8% | +4.8% | 45.8% | +4.9% | +6 | +11 | +11 | −15 | · | · | |
| 12 | Cleo FieldsDemocrat | 219 | 23.2% | +0.9% | 18.7% | +4.5% | · | · | · | · | +4 | +9 | |
| 13 | Julie JohnsonDemocrat | 73 | 12.8% | −1.4% | 8.9% | +3.9% | · | · | · | · | +4 | −8 | |
| 14 | Robert E. LattaRepublican | 19 | 49.2% | +3.2% | 47.1% | +2.1% | · | −67 | −25 | +11 | +23 | +21 | |
| 15 | Greg LandsmanDemocrat | 31 | 9.1% | +17.3% | 7.3% | +1.8% | · | · | · | −2 | +29 | · | |
| 16 | Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.Republican | 247 | 28.6% | +5.3% | 27.9% | +0.8% | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | |
| 17 | Michael A. RulliRepublican | 11 | 0.0% | −0.6% | −0.3% | +0.3% | · | · | · | · | · | 0 | |
| 18 | David J. TaylorRepublican | 129 | 10.3% | +0.6% | 10.1% | +0.2% | · | · | · | · | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | Lisa C. McClainRepublican | 311 | 4.1% | +8.1% | 4.4% | −0.3% | · | · | · | · | 0 | −11 | |
| 20 | John JamesRepublican | 100 | 2.4% | +23.4% | 3.0% | −0.6% | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | |
| 21 | Richard McCormickRepublican | 65 | 10.5% | +17.7% | 11.1% | −0.6% | · | · | · | · | −3 | +6 | |
| 22 | Bruce WestermanRepublican | 91 | 13.4% | −7.3% | 14.2% | −0.9% | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | |
| 23 | Jefferson ShreveRepublican | 159 | 10.6% | +2.6% | 11.5% | −0.9% | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | |
| 24 | Jonathan L. JacksonDemocrat | 95 | 20.7% | +1.8% | 22.0% | −1.3% | · | · | +28 | −9 | −13 | −4 | |
| 25 | Thomas H. Kean, Jr.Republican | 68 | 23.5% | +4.1% | 25.6% | −2.1% | · | · | −24 | −4 | +6 | −9 | |
| 26 | Val T. HoyleDemocrat | 156 | 2.4% | +10.5% | 4.9% | −2.5% | · | · | · | · | −3 | · | |
| 27 | John R. CurtisRepublican | 41 | 15.6% | +1.3% | 18.1% | −2.5% | +21 | +3 | −14 | · | · | · | |
| 28 | Tim WalbergRepublican | 12 | −0.5% | +33.4% | 2.2% | −2.6% | · | · | · | · | · | −3 | |
| 29 | James ComerRepublican | 29 | 22.5% | +1.3% | 25.4% | −2.9% | · | · | · | · | −3 | · | |
| 30 | Michael GuestRepublican | 41 | 70.5% | +1.1% | 73.9% | −3.4% | · | −8 | −2 | −18 | +26 | · | |
| 31 | Byron DonaldsRepublican | 80 | 14.1% | +1.5% | 18.0% | −3.8% | · | · | · | +5 | −7 | +3 | |
| 32 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.Democrat | 933 | 6.2% | +1.0% | 10.4% | −4.2% | · | · | · | · | −5 | −4 | |
| 33 | Julia LetlowRepublican | 74 | 6.6% | +11.7% | 10.9% | −4.3% | · | · | · | · | · | −4 | |
| 34 | Maria Elvira SalazarRepublican | 77 | 5.9% | +4.5% | 10.6% | −4.7% | · | · | +1 | 0 | · | −5 | |
| 35 | Ritchie TorresDemocrat | 22 | 16.5% | −5.8% | 21.8% | −5.3% | · | · | · | · | −7 | +23 | |
| 36 | William R. KeatingDemocrat | 28 | 53.0% | +1.2% | 58.8% | −5.9% | · | −29 | +2 | +2 | −12 | · | |
| 37 | Josh GottheimerDemocrat | 755 | 15.0% | +1.4% | 21.0% | −6.0% | −9 | −16 | +2 | −11 | −3 | +5 | |
| 38 | John J. McGuire IIIRepublican | 12 | 3.5% | −6.5% | 9.7% | −6.2% | · | · | · | · | −24 | +3 | |
| 39 | Jared MoskowitzDemocrat | 289 | 25.1% | +5.9% | 32.0% | −6.9% | · | · | −21 | −17 | +10 | +5 | |
| 40 | Thomas R. SuozziDemocrat | 26 | 40.6% | −11.1% | 47.9% | −7.3% | −1 | −12 | · | · | · | · | |
| 41 | John H. RutherfordRepublican | 11 | −0.5% | +1.0% | 8.8% | −9.3% | · | −9 | · | · | · | · | |
| 42 | Daniel S. GoldmanDemocrat | 294 | 22.9% | +0.7% | 34.0% | −11.2% | · | · | −11 | · | · | · | |
| 43 | Robert J. WittmanRepublican | 35 | 25.8% | +1.9% | 39.1% | −13.3% | · | +4 | −52 | · | · | · | |
| 44 | Michael C. BurgessRepublican | 32 | 7.2% | −0.4% | 20.7% | −13.5% | +2 | −43 | −13 | −13 | · | · | |
| 45 | Donald S. Beyer, Jr.Democrat | 15 | 9.5% | +1.6% | 23.4% | −13.8% | +3 | −16 | · | · | · | · | |
| 46 | April McClain DelaneyDemocrat | 228 | −3.0% | −1.7% | 12.1% | −15.1% | · | · | · | · | −20 | −12 | |
| 47 | Dan NewhouseRepublican | 95 | 32.4% | +6.6% | 47.9% | −15.5% | · | · | −32 | −25 | +36 | −9 | |
| 48 | Chris JacobsRepublican | 72 | 33.8% | +13.7% | 51.4% | −17.6% | · | −14 | −32 | · | · | · | |
| 49 | Scott FranklinRepublican | 93 | 18.6% | +1.1% | 37.0% | −18.4% | · | −45 | −11 | −25 | −11 | +6 | |
| 50 | Kevin HernRepublican | 223 | 50.7% | +1.0% | 70.1% | −19.4% | +28 | −23 | −31 | −15 | −10 | +6 | |
| 51 | J. French HillRepublican | 10 | 26.7% | +8.1% | 47.4% | −20.8% | · | · | −23 | · | −17 | · | |
| 52 | Lois FrankelDemocrat | 129 | 20.2% | +0.3% | 41.3% | −21.1% | +13 | −10 | −36 | · | · | · | |
| 53 | Rick W. AllenRepublican | 24 | 4.9% | −0.1% | 26.0% | −21.1% | · | · | −22 | −31 | −40 | −6 | |
| 54 | Rick LarsenDemocrat | 37 | 11.8% | +0.7% | 34.3% | −22.5% | · | · | −42 | −24 | −15 | −4 | |
| 55 | James R. LangevinDemocrat | 45 | 7.9% | −6.7% | 32.1% | −24.2% | −9 | −26 | −28 | · | · | · | |
| 56 | Virginia FoxxRepublican | 252 | 29.9% | −0.4% | 60.6% | −30.7% | +27 | −49 | −28 | −11 | −5 | −11 | |
| 57 | Lloyd DoggettDemocrat | 110 | 26.6% | −0.3% | 58.7% | −32.1% | −57 | −57 | −51 | −25 | −17 | −4 | |
| 58 | Earl BlumenauerDemocrat | 46 | 32.1% | +1.6% | 68.6% | −36.4% | +8 | −38 | −53 | −28 | · | · | |
| 59 | Cynthia AxneDemocrat | 25 | 23.8% | −0.7% | 67.1% | −43.2% | −27 | −52 | · | · | · | · | |
| 60 | Carol D. MillerRepublican | 18 | 17.0% | −5.3% | 60.4% | −43.4% | · | −73 | −19 | · | −32 | · | |
| 61 | Alan S. LowenthalDemocrat | 29 | 20.8% | −1.2% | 67.6% | −46.8% | −32 | −47 | · | · | · | · |
Do their sales help?
Every completed round trip: in the session after the purchase was disclosed, out the session after the sale was.
Across 3,114 round trips, a median of 105 days long, they beat the index 39% of the time. Random stocks bought and sold on the same days beat it 36% of the time — so a beat rate under half is what picking individual stocks looks like, not a verdict on these members. Following them in and out trailed the index by 3.4 points per position.